TEHRAN - An independent scholar believes it is hard to anticipate whether the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) would establish a government with the involvement of Syria’s diverse ethnic and religious groups.

“It is hard to predict whether the new rulers of Syria would embrace an inclusive form of government,” Shireen Hunter tells the Tehran Times.

Hunter, a Georgetown University professor, says if the new rulers in Syria do not seek “revenge against the Alawites” who ruled Syria under President Bashar al-Assad “it would be a positive sign for the future”.

The following is the text of the interview:

What is your analysis of the turn of events in post-Assad Syria?

Thus far, events following the fall of the Assad government have been less violent and disruptive than similar circumstances in the past in places like Iraq and Libya. It appears that the rebels that took over the government in Damascus were quite prepared for governing. They have put together a government quite quickly, and it seems that Turkey will help them in the task of governance and organizing the post-Assad bureaucracy. Meanwhile, most likely, Qatar will provide the necessary financial assistance. However, creating a functioning government and economy after years of war and strife will not be easy.

What do you think of the HTS leader’s overtures of respect for plurality in Syrian society? Do you think these overtures are genuine?

It is hard to predict whether the new rulers of Syria would embrace an inclusive form of government and would involve religious and ethnic minorities in the act of governing.  The Kurds , most likely would want some form of self-governance . The question is whether Turkey would accept such a setup, given Ankara's concerns about independence movement within Turkey's Kurdish minority. I don't see any possibility, at least in the near future, for the involvement of the Alawites in politics. The same applies to the Shias and also the Druze. If the government does not pursue revenge against the Alawites , it would be a positive sign for the future. However, already some individuals have been exacting personal vendetta against the Alawites.

It is clear that the HTS toppled Assad with the help of other opposition groups and each has its own priorities. What steps are needed to stop a scenario like Libya or Sudan in Syria?

The current groups in Syria, with the exception of the Kurds, don't have the cohesion and support --the US claims supporting the Kurds-- to challenge the present government. Groups in Libya and Sudan were supported by outside forces, including the UAE, Turkey, and Russia. But, at the moment, I don't see any country willing to support the opponents of HTS. Moreover, unlike Libya and Sudan, Syria is close to Israel and key Arab states like Jordan. So outside actors are likely to be more careful in supporting warring factions. Should there be a conflict, it would be between the Kurds and the HTS. Israel might support the Kurds to counter Turkey's influence.

“The HST's anti-Shia sentiments are likely to be moderated by feelings of Arab solidarity.”

Certain Arab countries, especially Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are apprehensive of the Turkish great influence in Syria. Given that Turkey and the HTS are inspired by the Muslim Brotherhood ideology, will they remain passive or try to advance their own interests in Syria?  

Turkey's Islamists are not the same as the Ikhwan. Moreover, in every country, the Ikhwan acquires specific characteristics of the country. Moreover, as a Sunni movement, Ikhwan are no threat to other Sunni states. After the fall of the Ikhwan government in Egypt, the movement has been weakened. Furthermore, groups like HTS are mostly anti-Shia as their roots go to Sunni extremists like the Al Qaeda and Sunni groups like Daesh (IS). So I believe that Arab states will come to some sort of accommodation with the new Syrian leadership and the HTS will not act against Arabs, especially since Turkey, their patron, is a Western ally and they are seeking the West's support.

Also, how do you think Western powers will react to the developments in Syria?

The position of the Western countries is cautious optimism. If the HTS manages to stabilize Syria and eventually make peace with Israel, they will support it. Western powers are happy with Assad's departure and the weakening of Iran's position.

Some analysts say the Assad fall could pose threats to Iraq's security given that the two countries have Kurdish and Sunni populations. What is your analysis?

I don't see any immediate threat from the HTS towards Iraq. The HTS will be preoccupied with internal matters. Also seeking international acceptance, it is unlikely that it would cause problems to a fellow Arab state. Regarding Iraq, the HST's anti-Shia sentiments are likely to be moderated by feelings of Arab solidarity. The only way Iraq could become vulnerable is if it is used as a conduit to undermine Iran, including by sending terrorist groups to the country.

What is your prediction of the new Syria approach toward Israel as one cannot erase the Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights from the minds of the Syrians?

The leader of the HTS, Al-Jolani has said that Syria will not be a threat to Israel. So far, it has done nothing in the face of Israeli attacks and occupation of more Syrian lands. Anyway, Syria is exhausted and weakened and is not capable of waging war. Golan will never be returned to Syria and I don't think that the new Syrian government would run the risk of getting it back by force and possibly losing more territory. 

The US and Turkey share different views on the Kurdish issue in Syria.  Can the sides find a middle ground?

The Kurds have always been manipulated by regional and great powers.  I don't see things changing now.  Turkey and the US, too, would reach a compromise over the Syrian Kurds. In general, in the Middle East, the traditional state system is breaking down and various local entities are appearing, without having the characteristics of real states.

By M.A. Saki